Sunday, September 11, 2011

9/11. A Decade. What India need to learn?

Its been 10 years since the planes slammed into World Trade Center and the world changed outright. Nothing remained as it was before.


Lets rewind the clocks ten years ago and analyse the facts.


10 years ago Indo-Pak relations were same as they are now. Except the fancy terms like 'Confidence Building Measures' and 'Contagious and Non Contagious issues' nothing has changed on ground. Pakistan's fate is still doomed at the hands of the Corps Commanders and India still expects the Pakistani Army (and ISI) to book the perpetrators of 26/11. 


But Pakistan-US relations have changed to a very great extent. US finally understanding the real 'Strategic Blunder' to make Pakistan as the prime ally in the 'Global War on Terror'. Assassination (Murder!) of Osama Bib Laden in the heartland of Pakistan and in backyard of Army has finally raised the real question mark on US strategy in fighting the terrorism and choice of alleys. But still the American Af-Pak strategy is tied to the cooperation by ISI and Army in conciliating with the 'Good Taliban'. Pakistan who once proudly fathered the Islamic Extremism  is now suffering heavily from its menace. Still they show no signs to learn anything out of it.


Meanwhile Indo-US relations have significantly improved post 9/11. After declining India's support in the war against terror, US now recognises the importance of India to maintain its lost control over the region. In the wake of rising China, falling hegemony particularly over the Muslim world, Pakistan's incompetence (or Complicity) to control insurgency and rising cost of the war, US is giving India more importance to maintain Balance of Power in the region.
Post Civil nuclear deal in 2005, Indo-US cooperation has risen to a new height, where US looking at India as their Britain in Asia.


What we need to learn out of the incidents and shift overs in the last decade?


First and foremost. US could neither buy Pakistan Amry's support by over $20 Bn, nor it could punish the insurgents with super developed technology like Predator Drones. So, there is no way India could do it. We must hope that one day god will be kind to us to ordain an authority in Pakistan which is sensible and strong enough to talk peace with India. We can not and should not interfere in Pakistan's domestic politics directly but should facilitate all the  ways possible to bring a good government there.


In 2014 when the US troops will withdraw from Afghanistan, there seems a great possibility of Taliban again coming in mainstream politics. The world has already started talking with the 'Good Taliban'. India should also do the same. We should not be concerned of who will run that country but should befriend any faction that will take over when US leaves. Taliban could not be ousted with two Trillion dollars and a million troops. We are not in a position do anything of that sort. So Conciliation with Taliban, good or bad, is the way forward.
Also we need to make sure of our presence to be felt in SCO, OIC. We should make more friends inside as well as outside GCC to tackle Pakistan post US withdrawal.US is a good ally as long as they have their troops stationed in the sub continent. But when they'll withdraw, it will be us to face the Taliban not the west which is thousand miles away from them. So it is immensely necessary to make truce in this war before it begins.


Third and most important, we have to improve our anti terror infrastructure at home.  The recent bombings in Pune, Mumbai and Delhi have left no clue and the investigating agencies are trying round the clock to unearth the plot. We have to secure our boundaries and coast lines for any cost that may require. Surely India does not want its land to become Pakistan or Iraq or Afghanistan where explosions come up with the sunrise and gunfires break with sunset. We have already paid huge price fighting the insurgency.We will have to pay a high price in coming future. Let the price only be Rupees and not in Blood.


The world has travelled long securing itself from the fanatic zeal of suicide bombers and the time bound of the IEDs. We can not ignore the reality of the path ahead. So we must remember, A pint of Sweat today will save a gallon of Blood tomorrow!